‘Monday Night Football’ best bets, pick

Week 5 of the NFL season closes out with an entertaining “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium.

The Chiefs enter Monday’s game on a two-game winning streak and a 2-2 record, while the Jaguars are 3-1 after back-to-back wins against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers.

The Chiefs are the favorites despite being the road team. The spread opened at -2.5, but has been sitting at -3.5 for most of the week. KC is getting roughly 75 percent of the betting tickets at BetMGM, which should surprise no one, considering the Chiefs are notoriously popular with the public.

The total opened at 44.5 and jumped a point to 45.5, and the over has gotten 61 percent of the tickets as of Sunday. 

Monday’s game should be an interesting test for both clubs. The Jaguars have flirted with being a good team in previous seasons during the Trevor Lawrence era, but their early start this year looks promising.

The stingy defense brewing in Jacksonville has been the key story so far. They lead the NFL in total takeaways (nine interceptions and four fumble recoveries) and have a league-best plus-9 turnover differential. Their defense has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (82.8) and the fifth-fewest points (18.0).

The Chiefs have been up and down through their first four games. They opened the season in Brazil against a tough division rival in the Los Angeles Chargers, and then faced the Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch.

Kansas City came out of that tough two-game stretch 0-2.

The Chiefs were able to get right against the lowly New York Giants in Week 3, then faced the Baltimore Ravens, who lost quarterback Lamar Jackson in the fourth quarter.

In that Ravens game, Patrick Mahomes looked like his old self — he finished the game with four touchdowns and had season highs in completions (25) and yards (270).

It helped that he had Xavier Worthy back in the lineup to stretch the field and open up the offense.

The Jaguars have been able to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but that hasn’t translated to sacks. They rank 10th in Hurry percentage (7 percent), which means they are good at forcing the QB out of the pocket, but 23rd in sacks.

Mahomes is also one of the best quarterbacks in the league at moving out of the pocket and running, as Jaguars Defensive Coordinator Anthony Campanile told reporters this week.

“I feel like he’s always been, you know, pretty active as a runner. I know he is running the ball a little bit more. But you know, in past games, he’s done a good job of that against us,” Campanile said. 

I think Jacksonville’s secondary is good enough that Mahomes will be more conservative throwing the ball downfield, but the added dimension that Worthy brings as a speedster should keep the Jags defense honest. That should give Mahomes some space to run if he gets flushed out of the pocket.

That brings us to the bet for this week. Mahomes has averaged 5.5 rushing attempts this season, and his line for Monday Night Football is 4.5. He has at least four rushes in each game this season, and the only time he didn’t top this number was last week against the Ravens.

I’ll back Mahomes to use his legs often to keep the Jaguars defense off balance.

The Play: Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-118, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.