Pick for Wednesday’s Champions League match at Anfield

Liverpool is off to a strong start with its title defense.

The Reds are perfect through their first four matches in the Premier League, and they’ve already vanquished Arsenal, one of their main title rivals this season.

The only team yet to drop points in the Premier League, the Reds now turn their attention to the Champions League, where they are favorites to win the title alongside Barcelona, PSG, and Arsenal.

Anfield should be rocking for Wednesday’s opener against Atletico Madrid.

Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid odds, prediction

It’s hard to poke holes in a 4-0-0 start to the Premier League season, but it is fair to argue that Liverpool has benefited from timing, good bounces, and costly mistakes by its opponents.

The Reds blew a 2-0 lead against Bournemouth in their season opener, but rescued the win with two very late goals.

Liverpool pulled a similar stunt the following week, blowing another 2-0 lead against Newcastle, before winning 3-2 on a 99th-minute winner against a team that played the entire second half with 10 men.

The defending champs then used a once-a-season goal from a direct kick to beat Arsenal, before barely edging Burnley, 1-0, thanks to a 94th-minute penalty kick.

Liverpool has a knack for winning in this style, but it seems unsustainable, even for them.

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Atletico Madrid has flaws of its own, but they’ve consistently been one of the best defensive sides in Europe under their fiery manager, Diego Simeone.

Atleti is 1-2-1 (W-D-L) on the season, but they’re second in La Liga in expected goals against, so the early returns are more promising than they look for Simeone’s well-oiled machine.

This is a veteran team that is used to playing in hostile environments, and they’ve got the defensive panache to contain Liverpool’s dynamic attack.

Liverpool’s luck will run out eventually, and a play on Atletico Madrid to pull the upset isn’t a terrible idea.

The Play: Atletico Madrid +550 (FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.