Inside look at WNBA first-round playoff matchups, plus predictions

The past four months have been building toward this moment. And after a record 44-game regular season, the field is set and WNBA playoffs are finally here.

There are plenty of storylines to follow.

Will the Liberty be successful in defending their title? Or will last year’s runners-up, the Lynx, wreak vengeance on anyone in their path on their way to the top after a dramatic ending to the 2024 Finals?

Or will it be the Aces, who finished the season on an insane 16-game winning streak?

The Valkyries are the first expansion team to secure a postseason berth in its inaugural season, setting a high bar for future newcomers.

The Caitlin Clark-less Fever and Nneka Ogwumike-led Storm are also in the mix for this year’s crown.

Though the Lynx are the obvious front-runner to go all the way, this year’s race does feel like there’s the potential for more upsets or a dark horse to make a run given the league’s parity this season.

Storm coach Noelle Quinn previously said that’s what makes this season “unique.”

“I’m not sure that I’ve seen anything like this year,” she said. “Usually in previous years, at a certain point in the season, you know who the top tier is and it just hasn’t happened this year early. … Everyone has beaten everybody at some point.”

It all starts with a four-game slate Sunday, with all eight teams vying to be crowned this year’s champion playing.

Here’s a breakdown of all four of the WNBA’s first-round series:

(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (8) Golden State Valkyries

Records: Lynx 34-10, Valkyries 23-21
Season series: Lynx 4-0

Players to watch: Lynx F Napheesa Collier (23 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG), Valkyries G Veronica Burton (12 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 6 APG)

Key matchup: The Lynx’s top-ranked defense versus the Valkyries’ 10th-ranked offense. The Valkyries are going to have a really tough time producing on offense.

We already saw this was an issue in the regular season, with Golden State averaging 67.8 points against the Lynx this season. Also, the Valkyries’ season-long 41 percent team shooting from the field is a league worst.

X factor: Natisha Hiedeman. She gives the Lynx a big boost off the bench, and she cooked the Valkyries in the past two meetings, pouring in 21 and 24 points on 63.6 percent shooting (60 percent from 3.)

Kenney: Lynx in 2. The Valkyries had a lot of franchise firsts this year. But their first playoff game win will have to wait another year.

Lehman: Lynx in 2. Valkyries’ hopes of avoiding sweep dashed when Game 2 was moved out of Ballhalla.

(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (7) Seattle Storm

Records: Aces 30-14, Storm 23-21
Season series: Tied 2-2

Players to watch: Aces F A’ja Wilson (23.4 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG), Storm F Nneka Ogwumike (18.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 51.9 FG%)

Key matchup: Can anyone stop Wilson, the three-time MVP who averaged 26.1 points over the Aces’ season-ending 16-game winning streak? Ezi Magbegor will get first crack. Perhaps it’s an opportunity for 6-foot-6 rookie Dominique Malonga, the No. 2 pick in the draft.

X factor: The resuscitation of the Aces’ season roughly coincides with Becky Hammon moving six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd to the bench. Her scoring, when she’s on, still can tilt games.

Kenney: Aces in 2. Las Vegas is the hottest team in the WNBA. The Storm aren’t putting out this fire.

Lehman: Aces in 2. A’ja and Co. take the winning streak to 18.

(3) Atlanta Dream vs. (6) Indiana Fever

Records: Dream 30-14, Fever: 24-20
Season series: Tied 2-2

Players to watch: Dream G Allisha Gray (18.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 38.4 3P%), Fever G Kelsey Mitchell (20.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 39.4 3P%)

Key matchup: The Fever’s third-ranked offense versus the Dream’s second-ranked defense. Even with Caitlin Clark largely MIA, the Fever put up 84.9 points per game. The Dream allowed just 76.8 while leading the WNBA in total rebounds and defensive rebounds.

X factor: Point guard play. The Fever are on their fourth-stringer in veteran midseason pickup Odyssey Sims. The Dream have Jordin Canada coming off an injury and rookie Te-Hina Paopao.

Kenney: Dream in 2. Atlanta picks up not only its first playoff win since 2018, but sweeps the series.
Lehman: Dream in 3. Fever are solid value for one win, even without Clark.

(4) Phoenix Mercury vs. (5) New York Liberty

Records: Mercury 27-17, Liberty 27-17
Season series: Mercury 3-1

Players to watch: Mercury F Satou Sabally (16.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.5 APG), Liberty G Sabrina Ionescu (18.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.7 APG)

Key matchup: Alyssa Thomas versus Breanna Stewart. Talk about an exciting frontcourt battle between two greats. Both are the motors of their teams. Thomas averaged 17.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.8 assists against New York this season.

X factor: Jonquel Jones. The Liberty’s success is in part dependent on what version of Jones shows up. Will we see 2024 Finals MVP Jones, who has made only a handful of cameos during the regular season?

Kenney: Liberty in 3. The Liberty are finally healthy. They’ve never played the Mercury with a full team (including Emma Meesseman.) The one time their Big 3 were healthy, the full game against the Mercury, the Liberty won. The defending champions will take this one.

Lehman: Mercury in 3. Went back and forth here. Typically foolish to pick against Breanna Stewart in an elimination game. But having to play Game 3 on the road — where they’ve been iffy all year — comes back to haunt the Liberty, who just run out of time to really click in the short series.