New test predicts adult obesity risk in kids as young as 5



The future is uncertain — but your kid’s waistline as an adult might not be.

Scientists have developed a groundbreaking test that can identify children as young as five who are at increased risk of becoming severely obese later in life.

The tool could one day help parents and doctors intervene early, setting young people on a healthier path before the pounds start piling on.

Approximately 1 in 5 US children and adolescents have obesity, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Pixel-Shot – stock.adobe.com

That’s significant, because America is being weighed down by an obesity epidemic — and it’s only expected to get worse without major changes.

Today, CDC data shows that more than two in five US adults are obese. By 2050, studies suggest that number could jump to two in three.

Obesity greatly increases the risk of serious health problems, many of which are now appearing at younger ages, including diabetes, heart disease, stroke, mental health disorders, cancer and even premature death.

To build the test, more than 600 scientists from around the globe crunched genetic data from over 5 million people.

They used that information to develop ancestry-specific “polygenic risk scores.” These work like powerful calculators, adding up thousands of gene variants linked to a higher adult body mass index (BMI) to estimate a person’s chances of one day becoming obese.

“What makes the score so powerful is its ability to predict, before the age of five, whether a child is likely to develop obesity in adulthood, well before other risk factors start to shape their weight later in childhood,” Roelof Smit, a genetic epidemiologist at the University of Copenhagen, said in a statement.

“Intervening at this point can have a huge impact.”

People may be able to overcome their higher genetic risk for obesity with lifestyle interventions, research suggests. ÐÑина ÐелÑдий – stock.adobe.com

So far, the tool’s performance has been impressive — at least for some groups.

Among people of European ancestry, the score explained about 17.6% of the risk for developing obesity.

“That’s a pretty powerful risk indicator for obesity, but it still leaves open a lot that is unknown,” Dr. Roy Kim, a pediatric endocrinologist not involved in the study, told NBC News.

In other words, more than 80% of the risk still comes down to other factors, including where you live, what you eat and the amount you move.

Still, the test outperformed the current methods doctors use to estimate a person’s future obesity risk, proving to be about twice as effective.

There are thousands of genetic variants that can influence a person’s chances of becoming obese. LIGHTFIELD STUDIOS – stock.adobe.com

But for people with non-European ancestry, the picture got murkier. In rural Ugandan populations, for example, the score explained just 2.2% of obesity risk.

Researchers said the gap likely reflects two key issues: greater genetic variation found in African populations and a lack of diversity in the genetic data used to build the tool.

Of the more than 5 million people whose data was used, 71.1% had European ancestry. Just 14.4% had American ancestry, 8.4% East Asian, 4.6% African and only 1.5% South Asian.

In addition to predicting a person’s risk of obesity, the scientists also looked at how genetic predisposition affects a person’s response to weight-loss efforts like diet and exercise.

They found that people with a higher genetic risk were more likely to benefit from lifestyle changes — but also more likely to regain weight once those efforts stopped.

This, the researchers said, challenges the idea that genetic predisposition to obesity can’t be overcome, while also highlighting the importance of maintaining healthy habits over time to sustain long-term results.



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Credit to Nypost AND Peoples

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