Best bets for Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Colorado

When Texas and Oklahoma changed the college football landscape by departing the Big 12 in favor of the SEC, everybody thought it would take a lot of the shine off the former.

Maybe it did among casual fans and with the TV networks, but for bettors, the departure of the Longhorns and Sooners turned the Big 12 into something truly unique: A Power 4 Conference that truly anybody can win.

Look no further than last year.

Arizona State entered 2024 as the third-biggest long shot in the Big 12 with 100/1 odds. Only Houston and BYU had longer odds coming into the season, and the latter went 11-2 and was one game away from a trip to the title game.

Meanwhile, Utah, the betting favorite to win the Big 12 before last season, went 2-7 in conference play. So did fourth-favorite Kansas, while Oklahoma State, the third choice on the board in the preseason, went 0-9.

The Big 12 turned into the MAC last year. It was wonderful.

Big 12 odds

The Favorites

Somehow, the Big 12 projects to be even more chaotic than 2024.

There are six teams priced between +550 and +800, with Kansas State and Texas Tech currently topping the board.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, projects eight different teams with at least a 6 percent chance to win the Big 12, and no team above 17.2 percent.

Connelly, like most bookies, has Kansas State as the favorite, but he’s got them at 17.1 percent, which equates to +485 odds. That’s a little higher on the Wildcats than the market, so perhaps there is some value on Kansas State in this volatile conference.

Kansas State would be my pick from the group bunched up at the top, simply because they have the fewest big questions to answer.

Quarterback Avery Johnson is one of my best value bets to win the Heisman, and the one area of the offense that took a hit this offseason, the o-line, is rarely a concern in the Little Apple. You can trust Chris Klieman and the machine in Manhattan to get that unit up to speed.

Arizona State’s quarterback, Sam Leavitt, was splendid last season, but the Sun Devils lost do-it-all Cam Skattebo to the NFL Draft. That’s a massive loss for a team that overachieved by miles in 2024.

Texas Tech spent a ton of money to bring in a terrific transfer class for Joey McGuire, but this program just never gets out of second gear. Behren Morton has been good, not great, for the Red Raiders, and he’ll need to be a lot more of the latter if Texas Tech is going to finally make good on the hype one of these years.

Utah looked like a potential buy-low candidate after a disastrously unlucky 2024 campaign, but this number has tanked. No thanks.

Baylor and TCU are in remarkably similar positions.

The bitter rivals each started slow in 2024, seats got a little warm (more so for Dave Aranda in Waco), and then both squads surged down the stretch thanks to stellar quarterback play from Josh Hoover (TCU) and Sawyer Robertson (Baylor).

Both offenses should be in terrific shape this season, meaning it will be the defenses that decide the fate of these two neighbors.

They’re both tempting, but Kansas State is roughly the same price, and in my mind, the best of the three.

Betting on College Football?

Dark Horses

We’ve seen plenty of hype trains in the Big 12 in recent years. Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Colorado, and Arizona have all, at different times, been trendy dark horses to win the conference.

This year, there doesn’t seem to be the same buzz around teams in the middle of the betting board.

Sure, folks will tune in to see how Deion Sanders’ box-office Buffaloes do without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, but the price on Colorado will always be taxed because of how much the public likes to back Coach Prime.

Iowa State and BYU are both coming off of terrific seasons, but the former has a really tricky schedule, while the latter is a massive regression candidate that is lacking a clear starting quarterback.

Tip your cap if they prove you wrong.

Lance Leipold has been a splendid success at Kansas, completely overhauling a program that was a doormat for a decade, but there’s been so much change on the offense that you’d want a bigger number to back a surprising Jayhawks jump. Much credit to quarterback Jalon Daniels for somehow still being eligible for Rock Chalk, though.

You could make an argument for Houston at 33/1 with a soft schedule in Year 2 under Willie Fritz — and I’d much rather bet the Cougars than, say, Iowa State at half the price — but they’ll be relying heavily on transfers, which could go sour, quick.

Long shots

The truth is that you could make a case for just about anybody to gatecrash the Big 12. It’s just the nature of the beast, especially with Texas and Oklahoma out of the picture.

I’ve landed on Oklahoma State because of the man in charge, and the turnover.

The Cowboys were downright poor in 2024, so Mike Gundy, entering his 21st season, overhauled the program. The offense will feature new players at just about every position, and there are new coordinators in charge on both sides of the ball.

That kind of turnover can be scary when you’re looking at the favorites, but when you are coming off a 2-10 campaign, it’s necessary.

There’s every chance that the changes don’t pan out, or they just lead to incremental change, but I’ll never have an issue with backing someone like Gundy at this kind of number in this kind of environment.

The Pokes stand at 65/1 to win the wide-open Big 12. Go and get some.

Best bets for the Big 12

• Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+600, BetMGM)
• Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 (65/1, FanDuel)
• Avery Johnson to win the Heisman Trophy (50/1, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.