WNBA best bets, picks, odds Thursday

Revenge angles can be tricky in sports handicapping. Though it often makes for a good narrative, sometimes the players do not care nearly as much as bettors think they do.

The Phoenix Mercury host the Indiana Fever as 5.5-point favorites Thursday, with a total of 170.5 points.

They last faced each other July 30, when the Fever outgunned Phoenix, 107-101, even without the injured Caitlin Clark.

The Mercury were furious with their defensive effort, and Indiana’s ability to shoot over 50 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point territory.

I expect a much more spirited and focused defensive effort Thursday. Indiana backup point guard Aari McDonald should not be able to light up Phoenix for 27 points.

However, Indiana will still find ways to score because it pushes the pace and wants a back-and-forth game. Phoenix has no issue with that style of play.

Plus, the Fever are ending a four-game road trip in which they ran out of steam in their last game against the high-paced Los Angeles Sparks.

I think Phoenix will take a similar approach and take advantage of Indiana’s suspect defense.

Indiana’s offense can thrive without Clark, even on this lengthy road trip.

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Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston are All-Stars, and the supporting cast can generate points even with Phoenix trying to avenge their previous meeting.

That is why I am reluctant to lay the points, though I do think the Mercury manage to cover.

But I would rather not fade a quality team coming off a loss. However, I do think the Mercury will be able to score fairly easily.

I have a 59-48-1 ATS record in this Post sports section.

My next play is the Mercury Over their team total of 87.5 points (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.