Don’t trust the ‘influencers’ — Trump’s base isn’t breaking over Israel

When President Donald Trump was weighing a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities a few months ago, influencers and commentators in a certain corner of the right went into an uproar.

The base will not stand for it! they shouted, calling the very idea a betrayal — and the liberal media accepted their framing. “MAGA is split over Iran,” the headlines screamed.

They were soon proved wrong. Republican voters overwhelmingly supported ridding the planet of the threat of a nuclear Iran, to the tune of 80%.

The same thing played out over the administration’s awkward handling of the Jeffery Epstein files.

This time he’s really done it! brayed the influencers — Trump’s supporters would not tolerate burying the Epstein list, they declared. “The Epstein case is tearing MAGA apart,” the media parroted.

Once again, the commentariat was wrong; polling showed how little GOP voters cared about the topic, and how little they blamed Trump for his aides’ stumbles. 

The lesson should be clear: Doubt the president’s understanding of his base at your peril.

Yet today these same characters, following the social-media engagement algorithms, declare that Israel’s war with Hamas is losing the right.

Attention-seeking lawmakers are claiming a “genocide” in Gaza, as influencers predict an imminent GOP rupture.

And again, it’s just not true.

For starters, polling still shows vast support for Israel among Republicans —including for the current war against Hamas.

Last week 71% of Republican voters told Gallup that despite all the headlines claiming famine in Gaza, they are on Israel’s side in this war — compared to just 25% of independents and a shocking 8% of Democrats.

Meanwhile, 81% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of the situation, including his clear and proud Israel backing.

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True, younger Republicans express less support for Israel — their approval of the Jewish state is at 50%, polls show.

But the reason for that isn’t anti-Israel sentiment. It’s populism.

Young Republicans, like young Americans across the board, have less appetite for war — especially when they are being asked to fund it.

A survey of attendees at the recent Turning Point USA Student Action Summit, which gathered over 5,000 young conservatives, found that 73% called themselves pro-Israel — even as the event’s prominent speakers were expounding on Epstein’s alleged ties to Mossad.

The vast majority of the young activists in attendance agreed that Israel has a right to defend itself.

But they also said they were sick of being asked to pay for wars they don’t see as benefiting them — unlike the strike on Iran, which 86% supported.

A few days ago Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk convened a focus group on Israel with conservative Gen Z students.

“What’s the first word that comes to mind when you hear ‘Israel’?” Kirk asked them.

Some responded with terms including “Judaism,” “conflict” and “sacred” — but by far, the word that came up most often was “aid.”

“Our house is burning down and so is our neighbor’s, and we’re trying to put their fire out before we put ours out,” one student explained.

Israel absolutely has a right to exist and a right to defend itself, these young Americans said, but we have a right to want our taxpayer dollars spent at home.

It’s the exact same logic heard from many MAGA partisans when they explain their fatigue with paying for the war in Ukraine, or for USAID grants: They can’t afford to buy a home, yet their tax dollars are going elsewhere.

Meanwhile, when pro-Israel partisans paint these young Trump supporters as antisemitic for opposing aid to Israel, they feel alienated, complaining that a woke speech code has infected the discourse.

“It’s very similar to our support for Ukraine,” one of the students explained to Kirk.

“We’re sending a lot of money over there, not really getting in my opinion a huge return on investment . . . When people talk about their distrust or dis-support for Israel, that’s the first thing that usually comes up, is all the money that we’re sending them.”

“I think we have a lot bigger issues at home,” another said. “I think we should be spending most of our tax dollars on securing our border, keeping our home people safe . . . we have a much bigger problem on the home front, rather than sending money to foreign countries.”

Crucially, they don’t see this stance as being anti-Israel — but as being pro-American.

“I think it’s critical that we remain friends with them, they remain our ally,” another focus group participant succinctly put it. “I just don’t think we should be subsidizing them as much as we are.”

So ignore the newly anti-Israel right-wing podcasting class. Gen Z Republicans aren’t turning on Israel.

They’re just insisting that their own right to the American Dream must come first — as they should.

Batya Ungar-Sargon is the author of “Second Class: How the Elites Betrayed America’s Working Men and Women.”