Odds, picks, best bet for Big Ten showdown

Not only did Washington State get us a sweat-free cover as last week’s “Ugly Underdog,” but the Cougars nearly pulled off a stunning upset at Ole Miss. I was tempted to go back to Wazzu this week at Virginia, but we’ll just thank them for getting us to 5-2 on the season and move on to Week 8, which takes us to the new center of the college football world, Bloomington, Ind.

Nobody is going to want to step in front of the runaway freight train that is the Indiana University football program.

What Curt Cignetti has done with the Hoosiers in just two years is as remarkable a coaching job as you’ll see in any sport. 

Indiana went 2-10, 4-8, and 3-9 in the three seasons before Cignetti took over after a successful spell at James Madison.

The Hoosiers went 11-2 and crashed the College Football Playoff in his first year in Bloomington, penning one of the most surprising campaigns in the modern era.

But, as always happens when a team exceeds expectations by light-years, the skeptics were champing at the bit to peg Indiana for a step-back season in 2025.

Cignetti relied heavily on transfers in 2024, and nobody thought he would be able to do it again in a Big Ten that had an alleged three-headed monster of Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon, the latter of which the Hoosiers just beat on their deck.

Not only do the Hoosiers look like they’re going back to the College Football Playoff in 2025, but this time they’re going to be a contender to win it all, thanks in large part to their Heisman-caliber quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, who, like Indiana’s football program, came out of nowhere.

Betting on College Football?

With all of this momentum behind Indiana, it’s no wonder that the Hoosiers are laying 27.5 points against Michigan State on Saturday. 

Sounds like the perfect time to fade the hype train.

Indiana has yet to put a foot wrong in 2025.

The Hoosiers tuned up some weak opponents early, earned a statement win in a blowout against Illinois and then greased out a win against Iowa, which is what you need to do versus the Hawkeyes.

The Hoosiers took things to a whole new level in Week 7 by going to Oregon and winning, 30-20. Indiana didn’t just hold on in that game, either. The contest was in the balance, and they earned the victory.

It’s been a bit of a gauntlet for the Hoosiers, but they can ease up a bit this weekend against a Michigan State program that is reeling after three straight losses to USC, Nebraska and UCLA, to open the Big Ten portion of its schedule.

It’s been ugly of late for Sparty, but there is hope that they can keep this contest somewhat respectable.

The schedule spot is what jumps off the page at first with Indiana traveling back after a program-defining win at Oregon, but some on-field signals point to Sparty, too.

While the defense will be up against it with Mendoza doing his thing, Michigan State’s offense has enough bite that it can hang with the Hoosiers, at least relative to the four-score spread.

Putting aside their win against Youngstown State, the Spartans have averaged 28.3 points in their last four contests, two of which came against ranked opponents.

It will be hard to get to that number against Indiana, but even getting into the endzone twice should be enough to keep this within the number. If Sparty hits 14 points, you’re asking the Hoosiers to get you 42 to cover the spread.

Assuming that Michigan State will lean heavily on the run – the Spartans are 3-0 when they rack up at least 150 yards on the ground – this clock should be moving pretty quickly, which is something that Indiana won’t mind with its focus on staying fresh and healthy for the stretch run.

The Play: Michigan State +27.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.