ALCS prop bet, picks best bet

For all the hoopla about how the Mariners don’t have the legs because of their pitching, their rotation has delivered to this point. 

As Seattle looks to push Toronto to a 3-0 brink back at home for Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday night, the starting rotation has strung together a 2.38 ERA. 

George Kirby’s pair of no-decisions in the Mariners’ five-game divisional series conquest of the Tigers accounted for 10 innings of that. Between both of those starts, the right-hander amassed a 35% strikeout rate, striking out a minimum of six hitters in five innings per. 

This is more impressive if you look closer. In Friday’s 15-inning classic, he needed just 66 pitches to tally six strikeouts. Back at home in Seattle with a series lead, we can expect more leeway for Kirby — especially after an extra day’s rest for the bullpen. 

Kirby is not tagged as a strikeout pitcher. It’s interesting, however, that of his six-pitch arsenal, four offerings have a whiff rate above 30%. 

He just topped off his best strikeout season of his career at 9.8 K/9.

So can Kirby have this same effect against a Blue Jays team that ended the regular season with the second-fewest strikeouts in baseball? 

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Toronto is one of the game’s most aggressive lineups this year — especially on fastballs. If Kirby can establish an early lead in the count, his elite put-away pitch is his fastball, which has dismissed hitters at a 23.4% clip. 

Then there’s his slider, a pitch that is generating whiffs at a 31.2% rate, and one that the Jays haven’t made great contact against. 

It comes down to how well he can feel the zone. If Kirby’s four years in the majors have proven an elite acumen with anything, it’s command; he finished 2025 with a 4.72 K/BB.

He’s cashed on the Over for this line in five straight starts — two of which were double-digit strikeouts — and 60% in 2025. 

THE PLAY: George Kirby Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-114 at FanDuel)

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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.