Picks against the spread for every game

I saw a great meme slogan for the Jets on the Internet this week:

“The Jets: We almost always almost win”

That was the case last week in the 2025 season opener when they took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter against the Steelers. Pittsburgh then scored 14 points in 43 seconds — aided by Quincy Williams’ late hit out of bounds and Xavier Gipson’s fumbled kickoff.

After the Jets regained the lead on a clutch 67-yard touchdown drive, they failed on their second 2-point conversion attempt, keeping the margin at one point.

Everyone seated in MetLife Stadium and watching on TV knew how the script would play out. There was one plot twist when Williams atoned for his penalty with a nine-yard sack of Aaron Rodgers that got the Jets defense off the field with 6:07 to go. But alas, the game was too long, and Chris Boswell’s 60-yard field goal attempt was more than long enough.

So it was another Jets-patented heartbreaking loss brought about by a penalty, a turnover and bad luck. Same old … well, you know.

But maybe not. The takeaways from this first game were overwhelmingly positive. Aaron Glenn had them ready to play and effort was evident from the first play to the last. Rookie RT Armand Membou allowed the great T.J. Watt zero sacks, pressures or QB hits when they were lined up against each other. Top defensive stars Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner were excellent. Breece Hall showed burst in his 140 yards from scrimmage (107 rushing, 33 receiving). Justin Fields had one of the best passing games of his career, hitting tight windows on key downs. New offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s designs and decisions displayed creativity and continuity. It’ll be fun to watch how he builds off these initial successes.

If the Jets can bottle this performance, there will be a lot of Ws on this schedule against the likes of the Panthers, Browns, Saints, Dolphins, etc. The more pressing question is whether they can stay within a touchdown of the Bills on Sunday.

One betting theory I’ve used with some success over the decades is to fade teams that had miracle wins in prime time, like the Bills’ 41-40 Houdini act against the Ravens on Sunday night. Now they travel and also have another game coming Thursday night at home against the Dolphins.

Buffalo’s defense gave up 238 yards on the ground and an astounding 8.6 yards per play against Baltimore. The Jets’ offensive line, and Hall and Braelon Allen, are not the bunch the Bills wanted to run into this week.

The pick: Jets +6.5.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-5.5) over New York Giants

Was Washington’s pass rush that good or is the Giants’ offensive line that bad? More importantly, how much would LT Andrew Thomas help even if he can play after missing the entire preseason and Week 1 as he recovered from foot surgery?

The Giants are biding time with Russell Wilson and waiting for the right spot to unveil Jaxson Dart. Brian Daboll’s problem is this, though: As long as Dart is a promise for the future, he’s probably safe. If Dart were to come in, fail to score and the Giants were to keep losing, there would be nothing left standing between the coach and the door.

New England Patriots (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Perhaps the Dolphins can find some pride after their 33-8 face plant against the Colts. Doubt that, though, as this looks to be a matchup of a Patriots team that’s just getting started under Mike Vrabel, while the Dolphins might be done with the nutty professor Mike McDaniel.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincy won its opener in Cleveland despite gaining just seven yards in the second half. That improved its record in the first two weeks of seasons with Joe Burrow to 2-9, including 0-5 in Week 2. Figuring Trevor Lawrence can do a little more with Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., and maybe the hook in the line can be of benefit in a close one.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-11.5) over Cleveland Browns

I remember grabbing 20 points with the Browns in Baltimore in Week 18 last season and losing, 35-10. … It was an excruciating three hours. Big bounce back for the Ravens after their collapse at Buffalo.

Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Rams list three questionables on the offensive line, but the defense is healthy. As part of their feast on rookie Cam Ward, we should see some defensive points and good field position for Matthew Stafford.

DETROIT LIONS (-6) over Chicago Bears

Ben Johnson returns to Detroit knowing more about the Lions’ offense and defense than even their current coordinators do. That’s a concern, but Da Bears have some key injuries and travel after a Monday night heartbreaker, and the Lions should be on point after their opening loss in Green Bay.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3) over Seattle Seahawks

Battle of ex-Jets QBs Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold. If what we saw from Rodgers last week is what he’s going to be, sign me up.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-3) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Niners’ second consecutive road game is a long trip without Brock Purdy and George Kittle. They still have a great defense, and the drop in spread from 6.5 to 3 probably accounts for the downgrade to Mac Jones at quarterback.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-6.5) over Carolina Panthers

Though the Panthers won this matchup, 36-3, in overtime at home in 2024, the Cardinals should be able to win by a full touchdown this time. After Will Johnson shuts down Tetairoa McMillan in a rookie battle, the Panthers don’t have much else.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+1.5) over Denver Broncos

Sticking with Daniel Jones and the Colts after they produced a rare “W” for us in Week 1, scoring on every drive. Though Denver will be better than no-show Miami, the Colts look solid to me on both sides of the ball.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Though a lot of people will jump on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid as home underdogs, I’m struggling to see how the Chiefs will make up the difference from February’s Super Bowl. That game was 40-6 Eagles with less than three minutes to go. Chiefs without top WR threats Rashee Rice (suspended) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder).

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3.5) over Atlanta Falcons

Respect Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons’ ability to keep this close. Still, the Skol yard is going to be a daunting place for them to play in the home debut for J.J. McCarthy.

Monday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston is retooling its offense, and the results were a mess in the opener at the Rams. Nine points, zero touchdowns, 2-for-9 on third down. Going to need a lot more than that to keep up with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and rookie terror Emeka Egbuka.

Betting on the NFL?

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Chargers have two extra days of preparation off their Friday win over the Chiefs, while the Raiders traveled cross country after beating the Patriots. Willing to lay this number just to have Justin Herbert on my side after what he did to the Chiefs.

BEST BETS: Buccaneers, Patriots, Eagles.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Bucs (Locks 0-1 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 5-11 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Commanders (L).