MLB Saturday player props, odds, picks

It looks like Max Fried is back on track. 

From July 1 to the middle of August, Fried posted a 6.80 ERA over eight starts, ballooning his ERA on the year from 1.92 to 3.26. 

After some worries in The Bronx about their supposed ace, something appears to have clicked over his last four outings. 

Since that tough stretch, Fried has a 1.67 ERA and tossed at least six innings in each start. 

Fried’s walks (3.00 per nine innings) and strikeouts (7.33 per nine innings) aren’t quite at pre-July levels, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground (62.2 percent ground ball rate).

Over those four outings, Fried hasn’t allowed a single home run.

Three of those four starts came against some of the better lineups in the American League — the Blue Jays, Astros and Red Sox, who he’ll face on Saturday. 

Overall, he’s had Boston’s number this year.

Fried blanked the Red Sox over six innings, striking out seven while allowing just four hits less than a month ago.

Back in June, he allowed two earned runs over seven solid innings with nine strikeouts.

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I’m treating those mid-summer struggles as a blip. 

Bet on Fried like he’s closer to the Cy Young-esque pitcher he was during the first half of the 2025 season. 

The play: Max Fried to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs (-125, BetMGM Sportsbook) and strikeout more than 5.5 batters (+105, BetMGM Sportsbook)