How prop-bet lines can help your fantasy lineup decision-making

Is there anything more exciting than the start of the football season and your first steps toward a fantasy crown?

The birth of your child? Your wedding day? Nana’s 100th birthday celebration? Maybe.

But are you able to take those moments, turn them into a championship trophy and flaunt your savvy GM skills to all your friends? Probably not.

Fantasy football is here, and the excitement levels are through the roof.

Of course, with every championship run comes an array of decisions, and with that, a heap of anxiety.

Do you start Trevor Lawrence against the Jaguars or Geno Smith against the Patriots? Do you use Bucky Irving or Alvin Kamara? Jerry Jeudy or Deebo Samuel?

There is nothing worse than leaving fantasy points on your bench because you made the wrong decision.

Most fantasy websites will offer start/sit advice and help guide you, but Las Vegas actually has another tool for you to use — player props.

Using the statistical lines from Vegas prop bets can be an extremely valuable.

Not every line is 100 percent foolproof, but using them as a guideline can make the decision process much easier.

It was actually how the fantasy community was able to back off its initial hot take that championed Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the next league-winner.

When the Vegas lines opened, Croskey-Merritt’s rushing yards prop was set at 31.5 yards.

Not only was that number incredibly low based on many people’s expectations, but the fact that fellow Washington running backs, Chris Rodriguez and Austin Ekeler, were listed in the 20-30-yard range meant that fantasy managers were jumping the gun.

Croskey-Merritt’s preseason ADP dropped from the overhyped fifth to the more sensible ninth round, and starting him in fantasy this week is now left for the uninformed.

The receiving yards prop for Jerry Jeudy is -120 to go over 60.5 receiving yards while Deebo Samuel’s line is set at +111 to go over 50.5 receiving yards.

Not only does Vegas use a higher number of yards to project Jeudy’s totals, but the -120 vig is also telling you they believe there is a greater chance of him going over.

For Samuel, the plus-odds are telling you they believe he is more likely to produce fewer yards. For fantasy, you want to invest in Jeudy rather than Samuel.

Bucky Irving’s rushing yard prop is set at -108 to go over 70.5 yards while Alvin Kamara’s is at +157 to go over 70.5. Advantage: Irving.

For Lawrence to throw for more than 240.5 passing yards, Vegas has the line set at -122 while it is set at +114 for Smith.

Not to mention, throwing for two or more touchdowns is listed at -109 for Lawrence and +130 for Smith.

That should easily tell you which quarterback is expected to have the better day.

Betting on the NFL?

Obviously, this isn’t an exact science, but then again, when was predicting the future ever foolproof?

But using the prop-bet lines from Vegas can certainly help make your lineup decision-making process a lot easier. Will it guarantee you a fantasy championship?

No, but using the prop lines just pushed your championship odds from +120 to -140, and that sounds like a win.

Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy football news and advice.