Home values dropping in 3 new American cities — bringing total to 7 this year in downward trend

Home values are now falling on an annual basis in three more major metros in the South and West, bringing the total to seven, as regional weakness in the housing market deepens.

San Diego, Miami and Phoenix all registered annual declines in sales prices for single-family homes in June, according to data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday.

Those cities joined a growing club of cities for falling prices that includes Dallas, Denver, San Francisco, and Tampa, where home values had already turned negative as of May.

Nationally, home values rose 1.9% in June compared to a year ago, the slowest annual pace of growth since July 2023. But behind the national number was a stark divergence between regions, with prices rising in the Northeast and Midwest, and falling in the South and West.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities tracked by the index, with a 7% increase in June. Chicago and Cleveland followed with annual increases of 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively.

Tampa again recorded the biggest annual price decline among the 20 cities, falling 2.4% and marking the city’s eighth straight month of declining home values.

Realtor.com Senior Economist Anthony Smith says that the muted national growth in home values came “as affordability constraints, elevated supply, and uneven regional demand continue to weigh on housing activity.”

“Regional price trends remain highly dependent on inventory composition,” says Smith. “In high-supply markets like Austin and Jacksonville, increased competition from builders offering incentives and price cuts has added pressure to resale values.”

In contrast, inventory in the Midwest and Northeast metros remains tighter, with limited land availability constraining new construction in the Northeast, and better affordability in the Midwest supporting demand.

Wages beginning to catch up with home prices

The downturn in home values in San Diego marks a stunning reversal for that market, where home prices were soaring the fastest in the nation as recently as early 2024.

San Diego’s housing market experienced some of the most explosive price growth in the nation in recent years, with home values there rising 66% between Jan. 2020 and Jan. 2025, according to the Case-Shiller index.

But as in other markets that experienced pandemic-era price booms, home values in San Diego may have escaped what local incomes could reasonably support.

Now, the lack of local buyers who can afford to purchase a home in those markets may be pulling prices back down to earth, allowing wages to catch up.

“For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation,” says Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

As of June, the Consumer Price Index measure of inflation climbed 2.7%, substantially outpacing the 1.9% gain in national home prices reported by Case-Shiller.

“This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners,” says Godec. “Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”

Total home equity for owner-occupied homes, which is a share of the home’s value that a homeowner owns outright, declined in the first quarter of the year, falling by $250 billion to $34.5 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data. 

But for homebuyers, it means that wages are now rising faster than home prices, with average hourly earnings for private employees rising 3.8% the 12 months through June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Looking ahead, this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth
rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years,” says Godec. “While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020-2022, it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess.”

The Case-Shiller index reports on a two-month delay and reflects a three-month moving average of home sales prices.

Homes usually go under contract a month or two before they close, so the June data reflects purchase decisions made in the late winter or spring.

Although the index’s price data is delayed by several months, it is considered one of the best available measures of changing home values, because it is based on repeat transactions on the same properties.