Putin claims Ukraine should give up Donetsk because Russia will conquer region by October —despite a decade of failing to do so

Russian leader Vladimir Putin reportedly told President Trump his forces could conquer the long-sought-after Donetsk region by October if Ukraine didn’t give up the land as part of a peace deal — but Kyiv and US observers point out that the Kremlin has failed to take it for more than a decade.

While intelligence varies on Russia’s advancements along the frontlines, one US assessment agrees that Putin could succeed in conquering the remaining 30% of Donetsk that he does not control by October, Axios reported.

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that has tracked the granular progress of the war since its start, however, point out that Russia has been unable to seize the region through three and a half years of bloody war — and 11 years of Kremlin-backed rebellion before that.

And there’s no reason Moscow will suddenly break through Ukraine’s most heavily fortified frontline.

“Even if we’re being generous to the Russians and say they can maintain their current advance, which we know they can’t keep up and have been pushed back from… It would take about 475 days for Russia to take the entirety of Donetsk, that’s December 2026,” George Barros, the head of the ISW’s Russia team, told the Post.

“And I think that’s putting it generously. To say Moscow can take it by October seems hyperbolic.”

Ukrainian sources who also spoke with The Post were incredulous about the alleged intelligence assessment that Kyiv could lose Donetsk.

“Donetsk by October? They’ve been saying that since February of ‘22,” an American serving in the Ukrainian Armed Services said.  

Speaking with Trump in Alaska on Friday, Putin demanded Donetsk be handed to him as a condition for ending his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, along with demanding the Luhansk, Crimea, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has scoffed at the proposal to give up land where his forces have fended off Russian soldiers who have outgunned and outnumbered the defenders.

A source familiar with the talks described negotiations over the fate of Donetsk as “the ball game.”

“Every issue is an ancillary issue, except Donetsk,” the source previously told The Post.

Moscow has launched four notable campaigns over the last year to take the remainder of Donetsk, with each major operation failing and resulting in Russia’s advancement of just over six miles, according to the ISW.

The quagmire is emblematic in the Russian operation to take the town of Toretsk, which finally fell under Moscow’s control on Aug. 1 after 14 months of fighting, with the Kremlin currently struggling to keep the 6.4 miles of land.

“Russia’s big push is happening in the summer, which has always been the case, but come fall, with the muddy season, things are going to slow down again,” Barros noted. “Russia won’t be able to sustain this push.”

Moscow faced a similar struggle in taking the city of Avdiivka, with a US military veteran, known by the callsign “Jackie,” noting that Ukraine’s defenses continue to defy the odds.

“It took the Russians from 2017 to 2024 to take Avdiivka,” Jakie, a spokesman with the 3rd Assault Battalion said. “I fought in the Battle of Bahkmut where I counted eight Russian shells fired for every one Ukrainian response.

“And that was during the lulls, during enemy pushes they were shooting 15-to-1 and it still took them 10 months,” he added.

After claiming Avdiivka, Moscow set its sights on Pokrovsk, a logistical hub in eastern Ukraine that Russia claimed to be making advancements in last week along with Dobropillia.

The city, however, continues to repel Russia’s soldiers, with more than 400 Moscow troops killed after last week’s push, according to Kyiv.

Zelensky and his top commanders also noted that Kyiv still holds the strategic cities of Sloviansk and Kramators, which have served as a “fortress belt” protecting Donbas, the land comprised of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

“They remain Ukraine’s main strongholds in Donbas, and the enemy does not have sufficient forces to storm them,” Kyiv said in a statement.

“Russia’s capture of the entire Donetsk region — including the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Dobropillia, and others — by October is impossible given the scale of losses and the inability of Russian forces to advance at the required pace,” the officials added.

Kyiv claims that Russia is suffering 1,200 casualties per day, matching estimates from western officials and think tanks, with the US veteran Jackie saying that Ukrainian soldiers will continue to fight to the last man to keep the invaders out of Donbas.

“If you think Ukrainians are going to give up Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, I suggest asking a Texan if Davy Crockett should have given up the Alamo,” the American said.

Despite the Trump administration’s latest suggestion that Ukraine will have to concede land to end the war, Kyiv maintains that territory not currently occupied by Russian soldiers is off the table.

“It’s not acceptable, but we don’t want to be the person who said ‘no,’ because for us, it’s important to go forward [with the US],” a Kyiv official exclusively told The Post. “We definitely, honestly, believe that just Trump can end this war.”