Undervalued Temple will win AAC

The AAC is going to be a gauntlet in 2025.

Although they didn’t send a representative to the College Football Playoff last year, the AAC has no less than six potential candidates in 2025, with Tulane leading the pack.

The Green Wave are the favorites to win the AAC, and their +750 odds to make the College Football Playoff trail only Boise State (+190) when it comes to G5 teams.

But Tulane has plenty of company at the top of the betting board in the AAC. Navy, UTSA, Memphis, and Army are all between +350 and +600 to win the conference, and they’re all considered viable threats to get to the dance.

2025 AAC odds

2025 AAC preview, picks, and best bets

The Favorite

Tulane was expected to have a down year in 2024 following the departure of head coach Willie Fritz and quarterback Michael Pratt, but they put together a strong campaign that saw the Green Wave get to the conference championship, where they lost to Army.

The Green Wave comes into Year 2 under Jon Sumrall with heightened expectations, but there are plenty of questions about whether or not this team can meet them.

Not only do they have plenty of tough competition in the conference, but they’ll need to replace eight starters from last year’s overachieving unit.

Tulane did work effectively in the transfer portal, but the lack of continuity for the betting favorite in a deep conference is a red flag.

Navy, the second favorite, is a team I want to back for a big year in 2025, but I think the best way to do that is to bet on quarterback Blake Horvath to win the Heisman as a massive 500/1 long shot. If the Midshipmen are in the mix for the conference and/or Playoff, it means Horvath is putting up big numbers.

All three of UTSA, Memphis, and Army are going to get plenty of love from bettors and the media, and the Tigers are the most intriguing of that trio, but the prices are just too short in this gauntlet.

Dark horses

The market does seem to have some love for North Texas in Year 3 under Eric Morris.

The Mean Green had some success with an explosive, risk-happy offense in 2024, but the defense was a shambles and will need a complete overhaul to make their offensive output stand up.

North Texas addressed the issue by bringing in Sam Houston State’s defensive coordinator and plenty of his players from an impressive defense last year, but we’ll see how the former BearKats step up in this new environment.

There are some sharp bettors who believe that North Texas can be a rabblerouser in the AAC, but the number has been slashed too much to be interesting.

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Long shots

There are a couple of massive long shots in the AAC, including one or two that could be more perky than their odds suggest.

The first one to monitor is Tulsa.

There’s been a little bit of love for the Golden Hurricane as a potential moonshot in the AAC thanks to the arrival of head coach Tre Lamb.

A 35-year-old offensive whiz who led Gardner-Webb to the FCS Playoffs two years in a row before turning around ETSU, Lamb will be tasked with making the Golden Hurricane relevant again.

The way to do that is to outscore their opponents, as the defense will be a real project.

Tulsa was hanging out at 300/1 earlier this summer, which would get some couch money if it pops back up there.

The other long shot that could provide quite a ride is Temple.

K.C. Keeler takes over in Philadelphia after leading Sam Houston State to an FCS Championship and then leading their successful transition into a decent Group of 5 program.

Keeler now returns to the region of the country where he burst onto the scene by leading Delaware to an FCS Title in 2003.

Keeler simply wins everywhere he goes.

Best bets for the AAC

Temple to win the AAC (200/1, FanDuel)

This is a bet on a terrific coach at a massive price.

It seems like every year we see a first-year coach have a massive impact on his new program in the Group of 5, and Temple could be the team that makes a leap under Keeler.

In a conference that should see everyone at the top beat up on one another, there could be a path for a team like Temple to get on a roll and surprise everyone.

Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, gives Temple with a 2.2 percent chance of winning the AAC, and while that isn’t much to go off of, it’s better than the 0.5 percent implied probability the Owls have according to their 200/1 odds at FanDuel.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.