Why fading Liverpool is the play

It feels like you can set your clock to the Premier League these days.

Only two teams – Manchester City and Liverpool – have lifted the trophy in the past eight seasons, and the Cityzens accounted for six of those titles. 

There have hardly been any relegation surprises, with Leicester City’s demotion at the end of 2022-23 being the only real head-turner.

In fact, last season was the second in a row that saw all three newly-promoted teams go right back down to the second division. 

This year’s newly-promoted sides, Burnley, Sunderland and Leeds United, are the clear favorites to go down, with the former two sitting at odds-on prices.

Liverpool did pull a bit of a surprise by winning the league in 2024-25, but the Reds were the third favorites behind City and Arsenal going into the campaign, and it became clear quickly that Arne Slot’s side were the best in the circuit.

The betting market is treating Liverpool like it’s the cream of the crop again in 2025-26, but there is very little separating the Reds from Arsenal and City in the odds.

Liverpool owns +175 odds, Arsenal, which has finished runner-up three years in a row, is +240, and City sits at +333, which represents the longest odds Pep Guardiola’s side has boasted before Matchweek 1 in several years. 

Chelsea is lingering as a +900 sleeper to win the title, and they’ve received plenty of betting support in the summer, but it’s pretty clear the bookies are treating this as a three-team race.

Will the 2025-26 Premier League be as straightforward as the odds suggest?

Best bet to win the league: Manchester City (+333, bet365) 

Last season was the first time since 2016-17 that City didn’t win at least one major trophy, and it feels like most people project that the Cityzens will have a tough time keeping up with Liverpool again this campaign.

Not so fast.

While City were a sour disappointment in 2025-26, they should get bounce-back seasons from Erling Haaland and Phil Foden, arguably the best players in the world at their respective positions.

Add in some much-needed new blood in the middle of the field, and City are set up to fly right back to the top of the table.

And, for the first time in years, you’re actually getting an OK price to back the Sky Blues to lift the trophy.

Long-shot consideration: Tottenham Hotspur (50/1, BetMGM)

Thomas Frank has established himself as one of the best managers in all of Europe, and now he gets an opportunity to manage a club with a massive budget.

The sky could be the limit.

Best season-long prop: Everton to finish top-6 (10/1, bet365) 

Everton were one of the relegation favorites for the past three seasons, but expectations have changed dramatically thanks to a refreshed squad and a terrific finish to last season under David Moyes.

Moyes, who managed the Toffees from 2002-2013, oversaw an 8-7-4 (W-D-L) stretch to close out the season, which pro-rates to a 62-point campaign if you extrapolate it over a full campaign.

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Even more encouraging is the fact that Everton’s expected goal differential over that span painted them as a top-six club, on par with the likes of Newcastle and Chelsea.

This is a terrific buy-low number on a team that has every chance to shoot up the table in a hurry in 2025-26.

Best bet to win the Golden Boot: Liam Delap, Chelsea (50/1, BetMGM)

One of the rising stars of the Premier League, Liam Delap, took to the top flight like a duck to water in 2024-25, scoring 12 goals for a terrible Ipswich Town side that won just four games and scored 36 goals. 

Delap now heads to Chelsea, a club with serious title aspirations and the potential to be one of the league’s elite offensive units.

He’ll need to share the wealth with Cole Palmer, but Delap is a different kind of goalscorer to his fellow Englishman and should provide the Blues with a threat not too dissimilar to Erling Haaland at Manchester City.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.