Drafting DST often a roll of the dice
You know a phrase you never hear anymore in today’s social-media landscape of tribal warfare? In this land of hot takes? Where it seems people think arguments are won based on how loudly they are waged?
You never hear: “I don’t know.”
All these keyboard warriors are too proud to back down when proven wrong, and too cowardly to say those meager, terrifying words: I don’t know. As if saying them expresses weakness, when avoiding them flaunts ignorance.
But the Madman is strong. We are unafraid. And we’re here to tell you, when it comes to drafting a fantasy defense/special teams, we don’t know which one to pick. And we’re OK with that.
Now, let’s be clear: We have thoughts. We have some basic data. But we don’t dive as deep on the low-impact positions (DST and kickers), and what data we do have we don’t fully trust.
One example: We’ve tried incorporating Pro Football Focus player ratings into our DST projections. It didn’t result in any significant changes or any better results than our simpler method.
Bluntly: There is a narrow gap to create an edge.
The difference between the best DST and what likely will be your waiver wire is not a wide enough gap to justify spending loads of time dissecting season-long projections — especially when you can stream DSTs from week to week without damaging your title chances.
And there is only so much time in the day.
We’ll let others spend time doing deep dives on DSTs. We’ll gather some aggregate data and average out projections from those sites we trust. Then use them as a guideline, trusting they know better than we do, because we’re focused on more impactful positions.
For us, knowing when to draft a DST is much more important than which one you pick. We normally take our defense with our penultimate pick, right before we take a kicker — if we have to take a kicker.
Fantasy Football DVQ: The only draft rankings you need
The latest incarnation of the Fantasy Madman’s football rating system has arrived. The nuts and bolts have been tweaked and strengthened, the breadth of the database was expanded, some ingredients were added to the soup, and some that were souring the stew were removed. So we’re leaner and more flavorful. Now allow us to serve you the latest helping of the Draft Value Quotient (DVQ).
The DVQ is a system that rates players across the board, balancing value based on positional depth. A player’s DVQ rating represents the point in the draft where projected production meets draft value. Each draft slot is assigned a value for expected production, which descends at a constant rate (same amount of expected points substracted from each descending pick). However, a player’s real-world production forms an arc (steep fall at top, then flattening out), therefore there are gaps in the ratings. Example: The top player might have a 1.0 DVQ, but the second-ranked player might have a DVQ of 13.3. Deeper in the draft pool, instead of big gaps, players will only be separated by percentage points.
So saddle up, study up, then queue up a draft, and take a ride with the DVQ.
Every once in a while, when things break just right, and we really like our RB and WR depth, and have secured starters at QB and TE, and we don’t care for the top options available, or have eyes on players who will last another round or two, then maybe, just maybe, we jump a round or two early on a DST. But that is rare.
Whenever it is time to pick, if there is a standout among our aggregate tally, we’ll grab that one. Otherwise, we chase sacks — because QB pressure is a leading catalyst for turnovers, and teams that generate a lot of turnovers tend to score well in fantasy.
Betting on the NFL?
And there you have it: The most long-winded “I don’t know” in the history of I-don’t-knows. And now, back to the more important positions.
Credit to Nypost AND Peoples
