Gavin Williams among best picks


The Mets-Guardians series finale offers a strong starting pitching matchup, with David Peterson going against Gavin Williams on Wednesday afternoon.

Williams is in peak form, arguably the best of his career over his past five starts as he has a 1.74 ERA with 35 strikeouts across 30 innings in that span.

Meanwhile, National League All-Star Peterson has been the only reliable Mets starter as they prepare for the stretch run to the playoffs.

Peterson is in solid form in his own right, with an equally strong 1.44 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 31²/₃ innings over his past five starts.

You may recall, I was recommending Williams to win the Cy Young Award in the American League during spring training this year. Those tickets are dead, but Williams hasn’t been bad by any means, and the 100/1 long shot wasn’t a total waste.

Williams’ walk rate is down of late, and his strikeout rate is up since the calendar turned to June.

Let’s target the total here and bet the Under on total runs in the first five innings, as both teams struggle in the earlier half of games.


Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams AP

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The Mets are 47-61-5 in favor of the Under for the first five innings this season, while the Guardians are 45-63-3.

With the Guardians cashing the Under at a 58.3 percent clip in the first inning this season and the Mets coming in at a 54.5 percent rate, Wednesday should be a solid time to hit the Under as these two starters duel.

As an added bonus, don’t be afraid to bet on Williams’ strikeout prop, over 5.5 coming in at +105, with some sneaky value on 8+ strikeouts coming in at +450 on DraftKings.

Williams has struck out at least eight in two of his last three starts and three of five overall.

The play: Mets-Guardians Under 4.5 total runs in first five innings (-110, bet365) | WIlliams 8+ strikeouts (+450, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.



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Credit to Nypost AND Peoples

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