ATP Toronto picks, best bets

It’s been a strange season for Andrey Rublev.

Once considered one of the most predictable and consistent players on the ATP Tour, Rublev’s results have been all over the place in 2025.

The Russian was bounced in Round 1 of the Australian Open, then won a title in Doha a few weeks later, and then lost in the first round in both legs of the Sunshine Double before putting together a wildly inconsistent clay-court season in Europe.

It looked like Rublev found his game at Wimbledon, but he started the subsequent North American hard-court swing with two wins followed by consecutive losses.

Things now seem to be pointing in the right direction for the World No. 11, as he’s one win away from a trip to the semifinals at the Canadian Masters, where he finished as runner-up in 2024.

ATP Toronto: Fritz vs. Rublev odds, predictions

While Rublev has been erratic throughout the season, it’s hard to poke holes in Taylor Fritz’s game right now.

The American was taken to a third-set tiebreaker against Jiri Lehecka last round, but that was a serving clinic from both competitors, and nothing to be worried about from Fritz’s POV.

Overall, Fritz is 18-3 in his last 21 matches and has two trophies in that span. If he keeps this up, he’ll be a trendy third choice to Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open later this month.

If Rublev has found his form, he has every chance of coming out ahead in this match. That said, we’ve seen the 27-year-old tease a resurgence plenty of times this season, only to watch him hit the skids.

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Rublev is 2-8 against top-10 opponents over the last 52 weeks, and he’s lost his last four encounters with Fritz on hard courts.

There’s a real chance that Fritz makes this look easy.

The Play: Fritz -1.5 sets (+120, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.