Holger Rune vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard picks, best bets Tuesday

It feels like Holger Rune has been knocking on the door of joining the tier of men’s tennis players right behind Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, but he hasn’t made the leap just yet.

The Dane became tantlizing close to doing it this spring, when he was runner up at Indian Wells and won Barcelona, beating Alcaraz in the final, but he followed with a disappointing grass-court season.

The World No. 9 was dropped by Roberto Bautista-Agut in the quarterfinals at Queen’s Club, and then lost in Round 1 at Wimbledon as a big favorite against Nicolas Jarry.

Rune hasn’t played since that defeat, so he should be fresh ahead of the North American hard-court swing, which will be his latest chance to cement his status as one of the best of the rest.

Holger Rune vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard odds, predictions

Rune should fancy his chances at the Canadian Masters, as Sinner, Alcaraz, Jack Draper and Novak Djokovic are all skipping the tournament.

That makes Rune a dangerous No. 5 seed, but he’ll have a tough assignment in Round 1 against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

The Frenchman is coming off an underwhelming grass-court season, but his all-world serve makes him a threat to beat anybody on the planet, so long as his weapon is cooperating.

Mpetshi Perricard also has the advantage of having played — and won — a match in this tournament, whitewashing Shintaro Mochizuki in the opening round.

Rune is an elite talent, and the type of all-over-the-court player that can beat you in a number of ways, but he also has a habit of beating himself, which only gets exaggerated in this kind of matchup.

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Mpetshi Perricard can essentially serve his way to a tie-break in each set — so long as it’s clicking — which will keep Rune from getting in any sort of rhythm.

That could frustrate Rune, which is the best path to victory when you’re trying to pull an upset against him.

GMP has value as a +160 underdog in this match, and if you parlay it with Over 24.5 Games, you’re looking at a potential +300 payout.

The Play: Mpetshi Perricard ML/Over 24.5 Games (+300, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.