Denis Shapovalov vs. Learner Tien odds, picks, predictions

Denis Shapovalov will ride into his hometown tournament with plenty of confidence.

The World No. 29 bounced back from sluggish performances on the clay and grass courts in Europe by making it to the final in Los Cabos two weeks ago.

Shapovalov eventually fell to Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final, but it was an encouraging sign that the Canadian shot-maker was back in his comfort zone on the hard courts of North America.

“El Shapo” won a title on the hard courts of Dallas earlier this year and then followed that with an impressive run to the semifinals in Acapulco.

But there’s something about coming home that doesn’t sit quite right with the Toronto native.

Shapovalov became the youngest player to ever make it to the semifinals of the Canadian Masters in 2017, but he’s never come close to matching that showing in the years since.

The 26-year-old is 3-5 in this event since his historic run, and he’s lost his last four matches in Canada. 

There’s never been a question about Shapovalov’s talent, but he tends to unravel quickly when things get away from him on court, and that pressure only becomes more pronounced when he’s playing in front of his hometown fans.

Shapovalov’s tendency to spiral makes him a tough player to back as a chunky favorite, which is where he stands for Tuesday’s match against rising American talent Learner Tien, who has four wins in five matches since Wimbledon.

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Tien’s game is growing, and he should be able to give Shapovalov enough problems to warrant a bet Tuesday.

The Play: Learner Tien (+150, bet365) 

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.